Transformers: The Last Knight Concludes US Box Office Run

Its official, outside of the appearing soon at the super cheap old theaters, Transformers: The Last Knight has concluded its box office run in the United States. I think there are a few territories left to go but none of them major enough to move the box office total enough to matter from a business making decision perspective for Hasbro and Paramount. After the first weekend I made a prediction for the film's box office: "...an estimated worldwide take by the time the movie leaves theaters of $150M US + $225M China + $250M Rest of world = $625M." Surprising myself I pretty much nailed it with a slight over estimation of the US box office take. According to Box Office Mojo the total comes to $130.2M US + $228.8M China + $245 Rest of world = $604M. As I said before, while most movies would love this total, Hasbro and Paramount did not spend $217M + who knows in other expenses (advertising, etc.) for this kind of result. They were expecting an $1 billion box office take and would have accepted close to that number. This kind of drop often ends in franchises ending or relaunched (see all the Spider-Man movies).

Transformers 5 Week Three Box Office

To no surprise Spider-Man: Homecoming took the number one slot worldwide with a very good box office weekend ($120M US, $140 I'tnl) so if Transformers: The Last Knight release had gone as planned it would have dropped to number two. Instead it was number five with $6.3M US and $18.1M internationally for a total worldwide take of $495M. Not helping was theater chains (at least in US) collectively deciding to drop the IMAX 3D showing of the movie and replace them with Spider-Man so your chance to see in that format is done after only two weeks. Considering the drops in screens, I can't help but wonder if the movie might leave theaters by the end of the month.

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $118,916,760 24.0%
+ Foreign: $375,700,000 76.0%
= Worldwide: $494,616,760

Transformers 5 Week Two Box Office

I was waiting to see what the numbers would be including the holidays but didn't really see much that mattered. The short of it all is Transformers: The Last Knight didn't really benefit from the holiday weekend in the States. As expected, the movie took a significant drop (62%) for $17 million resulting in a 3rd place behind Despicable Me 3 and Baby Driver. Internationally it added a nice $68M for a modest ~55% drop from the previous weekend once again showing that the films really are not made with the American box office in mind. So as of today the film is sitting at $448.6M.

So far my guess-timate of a $625M total seems about right. Now most other movies would love these numbers as would all but guarantee a sequel. However Paramount was expecting much more (close to or past $1 billion total box office) so it will be interesting how they respond to executive disappointment (always fear executive disappointment, a lot of franchises ground to a halt from this). Shrug it off as an inevitable bump of any franchise (most don't make it to five films after all) and stay the course? Over-correct? Under-correct? To be a bug on that Transformers wall.

Domestic: $109,158,195 24.3%
+ Foreign: $339,413,539 75.7%
= Worldwide: $448,571,734

Transformers Future Murky After Last Knight's Opening Weekend

While Transformers: The Last Knight was #1 movie released this weekend in the US and everywhere else it was released, the numbers add up to a very bad picture. In the United States the movie's opening weekend was a franchise low with an estimate of $69 million dollars. The movie also opened in 41 international markets for an estimated take of $196.2M resulting in a worldwide total of $265.3M worldwide total for its first weekend release. Most of that was because of a franchise high opening weekend in China of $123.4M.

While on the surface the numbers seem impressive but trouble spots indicate the franchise will fail to three-peat on a $1 billion box office take. The $69M in the United States includes the early Tuesday to Sunday night so the movie is going to die a quick death in the US as it is unlikely it will cross $150M in the States.

Paramount's plan was always the international box office after ever increasing returns with 77.8% of Age of Extinction's grosses coming from the international box office so was safe to assume that near same 20% US/80% Intl split for The Last Knight. A prediction that is currently holding true. "The movie was conceived of for a global audience and it performed for a global audience. You aren’t making the movie with just the U.S. in mind," said Paramount president of marketing and distribution Megan Colligan.