WGA On Strike

As of 12:01 AM the Writer's Guild of America is on strike until an agreement is reached to get a larger piece of the Internet and DVD sales profits. What this means for Transformers is up in the air. I think the strike will have to go 4 or so months before it might have a serious effect on the intended June 09 TF2 release date. That is mostly going to depend on progress of pre-production vs post-production.

Just as a very rough estimate for TF 1, pre went more or less a year, production went about 4 months and then post was 6 months. So really as long as have a shooting script is ready by next June, the sequel should be fine. It will not give Bay much breathing room, but its doable. All this assumes no actor or directors strike occurs next June.

As far as impact over other forms of entertainment, it varies. Theatrical releases will not be impacted until after Summer '08 since most of the movies for that period are script ready. A side effect though is the script doctors will not be on set so that could lead to more shoddy storytelling then normal, only time will tell.

For TV, the impact will be immediate. The Daily Show, Colbert Report, and multiple nighttime talk shows will go into re-runs for the duration. Current season shows probably have scripts that might take them through the year (in general TV shows are five eps ahead). South Park tends to be done the week its due so its 50/50 on whether there will be a new episode this week and probably none next week. Oddly some shows may even end their seasons early as its rumored that Heroes may call it as season with the end of the "Generations" arc and Heroes: Origins has already been cancelled.

December and January tend to be repeat heavy anyway so that buys the studios a little more time. For mid-season replacements (24, Lost, etc) more episodes are in the can so a delaying their start to February (rather then January) could get them through April. As for any gaps that do form, its probable that the networks will fill it in with reality programming. For example, CBS is apparently considering a spring edition of Big Brother. All in all, after the first week of December, the viewing choices should start getting interesting.

Its not mentioned in news reports, but all this could repeat again in June 08 as the actors and directors agreements expire. I think the WGA made a huge mistake striking now as the studios can hold out fairly easily for six months. The real pinch comes in June when the actors and directors strike which grinds everything to an immediate halt. Whatever concessions the writers get, those groups will demand the same and more. As a result, for the studios, giving into one guild is conceding the same to all 3 guilds. With that future threat looming, its really in the best interest of the studios to make an example of the Writers Guild by holding out as long as possible and giving up as little as possible. If the studio can last longer then the writers, this will help create a stronger bargaining position when dealing with the Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild.

So to sum, Writers on strike, impact on Transformers (for now) minimal and your TV viewing starting in December may become repeat heavy. If your not a TV watcher, then all this is pretty irrelevant.

For me, outside looking in, I am rooting for the studios. They are the ones that take on the risk by spending millions on new movies and TV shows so it only makes sense they reap the rewards. The writers, directors, and actors don't take the financial risk, so I don't see why they should get any extra rewards in perpetuity for doing the jobs they are paid very well to do.