Hollywood Strikes and Transformers 2

After reading the recent issue of Entertainment Weekly, there has been a slight clarity on strike fever that may strike Hollywood. It turns out that there could be three strikes over the next 8 months. The Writers Guild of America (WGA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and the Directors Guild of America (DGA), arguably the most powerful unions in the world, all have contacts with the studios that expire soon. All have demands for a larger share of the profits in whatever media the various studios may exploit their properties. Whether people are part of these guilds or not, if they plan on being a writer, director, or actor, they will respect a strike or get blacklisted. As a result of this, the June 26, 2009 Transformers 2 release date may be forcibly pushed back depending on various factors and how much pre-prep occurs.

Screen Actors Guild
Their contract expires at the end of October. Already notices have gone out to members asking for permission to start a strike on October 1st if a new agreement isn't reached. Based on reports, it doesn't look like one will be. The result is that the studios, for TV and movies, will have only their stockpile of scripts to work from. Once the various productions on the stockpile completes, that means no new movies or episodes.

For TV, the impact would be pretty immediate as the script turnover rate is about every 7-10 days for a standard season show. They will probably burn through the stockpile pretty quick which can result in momentum crushing repeats for many shows.

In movies terms its gets a little more blurry as scipt turnover rate is pretty slow, often months being allocated to tweak them. Also the studios have already begun prepping by greenlighting and rushing production on a lot of films resulting in allowing them to probably have a slate through the beginning of fall 2008.

In regards to Transformers 2, the effect might be minimal depending if a pre-production prep ready draft script is turned in before the strike. Since pre-production will probably take 3-4 months, all the prep work can mostly be completed before concerns over the deadline of a final shooting script arise. However, if no draft is turned in, then not much for pre-production crew to work from. Hard to design characters, check out locations, designs sets, costumes, and cast if no script to work from. Assuming no pre-production worthy script, then the longer the writer's strike, the less likely the 2009 release date can be met.

Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild of America
The union contract for both these unions end around the end of May which could result in a June 2008 strike. Whether one or both of these groups strike the result is the same - the immediate shutdown of all projects, both TV and movie, currently in production.

For TV, the this could result in the delay of the 2008 season premieres which of course effects revenue. For movies, this would of course impact any movies in production or about to start which would delay the planned release of an unknown number of films. Projects that completed filming but not post-production would only be effected if the directors union strikes. The more immediate impact will be promotion as the actors will not do their usual tour to promote the film coming to theatres.

In regards to Transformers 2, the effect again could vary depending on how much pre-prep is done. If pre-production and actual production completes before an actors strike, the actors striking but not the directors no delay as Bay will have the material in the can to work on the film. If both done but directors strike, an impact would only occur if the strike lasts for more then 6 months (highly unlikely). I will be amazed though if production on the film starts much less completes before the contracts expire. As a result, that means that production and post production has to occur after a strike ends. The longer a strike lasts from either union, the smaller the window to complete the film before the June 09 date. The smaller the window the greater likelihood it will be pushed back. If its pushed back, I have a feeling the studio will reschedule the film to bow in May 2010.

In the end, if you want that film to come out in 2009 rather then 2010, just hope a strike doesn't occur.